Key Competitive Race

A key competitive race is a contest where either party has a realistic chance of winning, and where the outcome could shift control of a significant office, court, or legislative body.

  • For non-partisan programs, we prioritize races where the participation of a small percentage of voters, regardless of whom they support, could be decisive. These are also the races where low turnout among some groups is most likely to distort democratic outcomes.

  • For partisan programs, we focus on races where the program’s efforts are most likely to influence the final result.

We prioritize presidential, senatorial, and congressional races that have the potential to tip the balance of power in the federal government.

We also support programs targeting gubernatorial, state supreme court, secretary of state, and state legislative races, particularly when those offices play a critical role in voting rights or in certifying their state’s presidential electors.

In general, we do not make recommendations for primary elections.

We give special emphasis to “nested races,” where adding a vote or voter for one race can affect other races up and down the ballot.

We do not recommend funding races when one of the candidates is nearly sure to win. 

Examples of key competitive races:

  • Georgia, 2021: Jon Ossoff’s Senate victory secured Democratic control of the U.S. Senate.

  • Michigan, 2022: State legislative wins flipped both the House and Senate to Democratic majorities, breaking decades of Republican control.

  • U.S. House, 2024: A shift of just 2,300 votes across four congressional districts could have delivered the House majority to Democrats.

  • Presidential outcome, 2024: Shifting 115,000 voters across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin elected Trump as president instead of Harris.

Nesting Dolls Strategy

All else being equal, we prioritize races that are geographically structured so that gaining a single new voter can impact multiple key contests up and down the ballot. This approach is known as the “nested races” strategy, or the “nesting dolls” strategy.

Example: Arizona, 2022 – Legislative District 4

A newly mobilized voter in this district could cast a vote in all of the following:

  • An important State Senate race

  • A critical Secretary of State race

  • A key Governor’s race

  • A pivotal U.S. Senate race

Because most voters tend to vote consistently along party lines, a new Democratic voter in this district would likely support Democratic candidates in all four of these high-impact races.